Abstract: Horizon Scanning (HS), a systematic management approach to identifying signals of external environmental change and supporting strategic decision-making, has been extensively applied in international healthcare settings. Currently, China's blood transfusion sector faces multiple challenges including population aging, emerging infectious disease threats, and rapid technological iteration, which urgently call for the introduction of prospective management tools to enhance strategic adaptability. Based on a systematic review of international HS practices, this study developed a "Technology-society-risk" three-dimensional analytical framework tailored to the blood transfusion services. The technology dimension focuses on how frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and synthetic biology are reshaping the entire blood supply chain; the society dimension analyzes shifts in donor behaviors and clinical blood utilization patterns; and the risk dimension prioritizes early warning for risks related to infectious diseases, regulatory policies, and supply chain security. Furthermore, this study, by taking into account China's specific national conditions, proposed a three-stage localized implementation pathway comprising "pilot exploration, institutional embedding, and top-level design".

Key words: Horizon scanning, Transfusion medicine, Three-dimensional analytical framework, Strategic foresight, Localized pathways