技术–社会–风险三维视角下水平扫描在输血行业的应用价值与本土化实施路径

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-2587.2026.04.004

临床输血与检验 ›› 2026, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (4): 484-489.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-2587.2026.04.004

技术–社会–风险三维视角下水平扫描在输血行业的应用价值与本土化实施路径

郭成城, 赵冬雁, 邱艳

北京市红十字血液中心,北京 100088

收稿日期:2026-07-06 出版日期:2026-08-20 发布日期:2026-08-26
通讯作者: 邱艳,主要从事输血技术与输血医学研究和管理,（E-mail）13681201834@163.com。
作者简介:郭成城,主要从事卫生管理,（E-mail）chengchengwell@sina.com。

Horizon Scanning in Blood Transfusion: A Technology-society-risk Framework and Localized Pathways

GUO Chengcheng, ZHAO Dongyan, QIU Yan

Beijing Red Cross Blood Center, Beijing 100088

Received:2026-07-06 Online:2026-08-20 Published:2026-08-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 水平扫描（horizon scanning, HS）是一种系统性识别外部环境变化信号、支持战略决策的管理方法,已在国际医疗卫生领域得到成熟应用。当前我国输血行业面临人口老龄化、新发传染病威胁及技术快速迭代等多重挑战,亟须引入前瞻性管理工具以提升战略适应能力。本研究在系统梳理国际医疗卫生领域水平扫描实践的基础上,首次构建了适用于输血行业的“技术–社会–风险”三维分析框架,技术维度关注AI、物联网、合成生物学等前沿技术对采供血全产业链的重塑效应;社会维度分析献血者行为变化和临床用血模式转变;风险维度聚焦传染病、政策法规、供应链安全等风险预警。并结合我国无偿献血制度、数据治理及管理体制等现实国情,提出了“试点先行—制度嵌入—顶层设计”的三阶段本土化实施方案。

关键词: 水平扫描, 输血医学, 三维分析框架, 战略预见, 本土化路径

Abstract: Horizon Scanning (HS), a systematic management approach to identifying signals of external environmental change and supporting strategic decision-making, has been extensively applied in international healthcare settings. Currently, China's blood transfusion sector faces multiple challenges including population aging, emerging infectious disease threats, and rapid technological iteration, which urgently call for the introduction of prospective management tools to enhance strategic adaptability. Based on a systematic review of international HS practices, this study developed a "Technology-society-risk" three-dimensional analytical framework tailored to the blood transfusion services. The technology dimension focuses on how frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and synthetic biology are reshaping the entire blood supply chain; the society dimension analyzes shifts in donor behaviors and clinical blood utilization patterns; and the risk dimension prioritizes early warning for risks related to infectious diseases, regulatory policies, and supply chain security. Furthermore, this study, by taking into account China's specific national conditions, proposed a three-stage localized implementation pathway comprising "pilot exploration, institutional embedding, and top-level design".

Key words: Horizon scanning, Transfusion medicine, Three-dimensional analytical framework, Strategic foresight, Localized pathways

中图分类号:

郭成城, 赵冬雁, 邱艳. 技术–社会–风险三维视角下水平扫描在输血行业的应用价值与本土化实施路径[J]. 临床输血与检验, 2026, 28(4): 484-489.

GUO Chengcheng, ZHAO Dongyan, QIU Yan. Horizon Scanning in Blood Transfusion: A Technology-society-risk Framework and Localized Pathways[J]. JOURNAL OF CLINICAL TRANSFUSION AND LABORATORY MEDICINE, 2026, 28(4): 484-489.

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技术–社会–风险三维视角下水平扫描在输血行业的应用价值与本土化实施路径

Horizon Scanning in Blood Transfusion: A Technology-society-risk Framework and Localized Pathways

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